Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.231759 14.275456 16.506210 19.115481 22.076999 25.326934 29.156173
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.518850 11.163423 14.340937 18.410504 23.451475 29.455847 37.110412
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.230558 9.049114 12.732143 17.828468 24.617626 33.261489 44.994517
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.933618 7.842219 11.929218 17.967547 26.512226 37.997856 54.391757
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.899058 6.740522 11.008583 17.698144 27.684239 41.757436 62.731322
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.396682 6.312876 10.949398 18.585447 30.498893 47.947575 74.872297
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.893304 5.767575 10.593044 18.920482 32.457615 52.999598 85.717730
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.443117 5.214326 10.117458 18.963466 33.909366 57.348073 95.784485
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.079665 4.740492 9.689933 19.000927 35.307316 61.666447 106.058094
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.959914 4.713589 10.046900 20.420581 39.110417 70.047838 123.239307
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.792258 4.553393 10.124815 21.330912 42.097911 77.288496 139.033639
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.634197 4.381058 10.148724 22.129417 44.936721 84.450874 155.118865
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.392021 3.978096 9.668777 21.941842 46.042048 88.869981 167.148022
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.133309 3.476027 8.902552 21.090775 45.832291 91.000392 175.468878
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.932106 3.066793 8.266747 20.414810 45.872670 93.554511 184.674613
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.814826 2.851719 8.035672 20.563423 47.539194 99.170622 199.649673
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.690174 2.581606 7.625423 20.257427 48.239840 103.015063 211.630908
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.646378 2.543025 7.781406 21.253979 51.729871 112.377922 234.298056
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.579520 2.413312 7.680239 21.630051 53.919013 119.341976 252.833454
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.508134 2.248019 7.455679 21.678178 55.391642 124.978991 269.151390
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.446016 2.096173 7.240916 21.720204 56.846108 130.659241 285.848278
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.439902 2.149574 7.620616 23.314408 61.946012 144.043015 318.239057
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.415671 2.127025 7.773749 24.335804 65.801200 155.072857 346.506690